Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
